How Computers Could Reduce the Spread of HIV

Scientific American – Fri, Jul 27, 2012 Visualization of computer model showing HIV risk behaviors; red dots are injection drug users that engage in needle sharing or unprotected sex; courtesy of Brandon Marshall/Brown University

Condom use, earlier treatment and increased education have gone a long way to reducing HIV spread in the U.S. Nonetheless, some 4,000 inhabitants of New York City still became infected with HIV in 2009.

Injection drug users make up a small portion of the new infections (just over 4 percent in NYC, and about 9 percent nationally), but they represent a finite and targetable population that can benefit from low-cost and well-vetted programs, such as needle exchanges.

Establishing even better needle exchange programs or more widespread substance-abuse treatment opportunities might help to limit these new infections among drug users. But finding out how effective these prevention programs truly are with scientifically controlled studies can take years and lots of money. If only researchers could run computer simulations to come up with some answers, as they do to model other complex systems

Now they might just be able to, with the help of a high-power, automated version of what you could call Sims for the urban class. The goal of the computer model, conceived of in part by Brandon Marshall, an epidemiologist at Brown University, is to

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European rabbis fear circumcision row could spread

A group of Orthodox rabbis warned Wednesday that the ancient Jewish practice of infant male circumcision could face further restrictions in Europe after some hospitals in Austria and Switzerland suspended the procedure by citing a German court ruling that it could amount to criminal bodily harm.

Last month's verdict by a regional court in Cologne didn't ban circumcision. But it prompted angry protests from Jewish and Muslims groups, especially after the German Medical Association advised doctors not to perform unnecessary circumcisions until the legal situation is clarified

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Airports in N.Y., L.A., Hawaii Deemed Worst for Pandemic Spread

HealthDay – 6 mins ago WEDNESDAY, July 25 (HealthDay News) -- Among airports in the United States, JFK in New York City, LAX in Los Angeles and Honolulu International Airport in Hawaii are most likely to play a major role in the spread of a pandemic, according to a new study.

Recent global public health crises -- such as the 2009 H1N1 "swine" flu pandemic that killed about 300,000 worldwide and the 2003 SARS outbreak that affected 37 countries and caused about 1,000 deaths -- have increased awareness about how air travel can help quickly spread dangerous bacteria and viruses around the world.

In this study, researchers in the department of civil and environmental engineering at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) used a new mathematical model to determine how the 40 largest U.S. airports would influence the spread of a contagious disease that originated in the cities where the airports are located.

John F. Kennedy International Airport in New York City would have the most influence, followed by airports in Los Angeles, Honolulu, San Francisco, Newark, Chicago (O'Hare) and Washington, D.C. (Dulles), the investigators found.

Even though it handles the largest number of flights, Atlanta's Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport ranks eighth in influence. Boston's Logan International Airport ranks 15th, according to the study published online July 19 in the journal PLoS One.

The MIT model differs from existing models in that it incorporates factors such as variations in travel patterns among individuals, the geographic locations of airports, and waiting times at individual airports.

"The findings could form the basis for an initial evaluation of vaccine allocation strategies in the event of an outbreak, and could inform national security agencies of the most vulnerable pathways for biological attacks in a densely connected world," researcher Ruben Juanes, an associate professor in energy studies in civil and environmental engineering, explained in an MIT news release.

More information

The U.S. Federal Communications Commission has more about pandemics.

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New optimism about stemming spread of AIDS virus

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New optimism about stemming spread of AIDS virus

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Health Tip: Don't Spread Germs

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